Billions in the Balance: Postsecondary Attainment, Talent Creation, and Economic Opportunity in Arizona
Arizona Still Has Billions to Gain
Arizona has spent years attracting major investment, employers, and jobs. Sustaining that growth also depends on whether more Arizonans can see a path into those opportunities and have the education and support to get there.
New research from Education Forward Arizona and Helios Education Foundation puts updated numbers behind that opportunity.
Billions in the Balance: Postsecondary Attainment, Talent Creation, and Economic Opportunity in Arizona examines Arizona’s education pipeline, labor market, postsecondary costs, demographics, and economic conditions to understand what higher postsecondary enrollment and completion could mean for individual Arizonans and the state.
The opportunity is significant
Arizona’s postsecondary attainment rate is currently 50%, compared with the statewide Achieve60AZ goal of 60%.
For Arizona’s 2026 high school cohort, the research estimates:
- $11.1 billion in lifetime social gains if the cohort reaches 60% postsecondary attainment.
- $5.8 billion in lifetime social gains from a 20% increase in college enrollment.
- $3 billion in lifetime social gains from a 10% increase in associate and bachelor’s degree completion.
Those numbers tell only part of the story.
Nearly one-third of students in the 2026 high school cohort are projected not to enroll in postsecondary education. Another 25% are projected to enroll but leave without completing a credential or degree.
That represents thousands of Arizonans whose talent and potential could be left on the sidelines at the same time employers across the state are looking for skilled workers.
Connecting education to Arizona’s growth
The research also looks closely at healthcare and semiconductor-related advanced manufacturing, two important parts of Arizona’s economy with very different education and career pathways.
Together, they reinforce a larger point: Arizona needs multiple pathways that students can understand, afford, complete, and connect to meaningful careers.
That includes certificates and licenses, associate and bachelor’s degrees, advanced degrees, apprenticeships, and other education and training options with value in the labor market.
Arizona will continue to attract talent from outside the state. At the same time, developing and retaining more homegrown talent can help ensure that Arizona’s economic growth creates opportunity for more of the people who already live, learn, and work here.
Turning research into opportunity
The findings point toward a student-centered talent strategy that makes education after high school easier to navigate and more achievable.
That includes strengthening college and career readiness, improving affordability, reducing barriers to completion, providing clearer information about education-to-career pathways, and building stronger connections among educators and employers.
Arizona has billions to gain. More importantly, more Arizonans have opportunities to gain.